Leistungsbilanzentwicklung ausgewählter Schwellenländer Asiens und Lateinamerikas

On the basis of comparative country studies, Rainer Schweickert interprets the development of the current account as a risk position. He shows that the crises in the 1990s in both Latin America and Southeast Asia have been preceded by relatively high current account deficits and relatively high risks concerning external debt, foreign exchange reserves and the banking system. Hence, the Asian crisis countries could have learned a lot from Latin American countries.
This does not imply that there is an optimal strategy towards the current account for all countries but that there is a risk-minimizing policy package, which consists of stabilizing real exchange rates, promoting domestic savings and export orientation, supervising capital flows and the domestic capital market, and, finally, avoiding structural fiscal deficits and economic concentration.