Michael Stimmelmayr

Fundamental Capital Income Tax Reforms

Discussion and Simulation using ifoMOD

[Grundlegende Reformen der (Kapital-)Einkommensbesteuerung. Diskussion und Simulation unter Verwendung von ifo MOD.]

2007. XIV, 235 pages.

Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft 23

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Beside the theoretical foundation of tax incidence in dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, Michael Stimmelmayr deals with the analysis of fundamental capital income tax reforms for Germany. The simulation results show how the main economic figures like GDP, investments, labour supply, household's income and consumption for instance change in the short and long run due to fundamental tax reforms.
The present German tax system is complicated, non-transparent and does not follow any theoretical model of taxation in a consistent way. Moreover, in the light of international tax competition, German tax rates are too high and thus scare away economic activity. Therefore, a fundamental tax reform is imperatively required in Germany. Michael Stimmelmayr analyzes the outcome and especially the efficiency gains of capital income tax reforms which is, however, an intricate task. The simultaneous alteration of several tax rates will induce multiple economy wide repercussions as well as different first and second round effects, as firms and households will change their optimal behaviour due to taxation. For these reasons, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is the only instrument which allows for a consistent quantification of all short and long run effects arising from capital income tax reforms. The simulation results show that, for example, the 2000 German Tax Reform will lead to a substantial increase in GDP of approximately 6% in the long run. But, in the short run the reform is very expensive since the gains of economic growth will occur at a later stage in time. Moreover, due to the enhanced economic activity the wealth of German households will increase by nearly one percent in the long run. In addition to the 2000 German Tax Reform, the introduction of a flat tax of 25% – the so called »Kirchhof's Einfachsteuer » – as well as a consumption based tax system is analyzed in detail.

Michael Stimmelmayr Geboren 1978; Studium der VWL in München; 2006 Promotion an der Universität München bei Hans-Werner Sinn; seit 2006 Assistenzprofessur am Center for Economic Studies (CES) an der Universität München.


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