Prognoseinstrumente in polizeilichen Entscheidungsprozessen

Maja Werner

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Maja Werner

Prognoseinstrumente in polizeilichen Entscheidungsprozessen

[Predictive Instruments in Police Decision-Making Processes.]

2026. 410 pages.

forthcoming in May 2026

Grundfragen des Straf- und Sicherheitsrechts (GSS)

including VAT

sewn paper
forthcoming
978-3-16-200306-5

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CC BY-SA 4.0

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Predictive instruments are procedures used by the police to assess the potential dangerousness of individuals. In a constitutional state, police decision-making processes are subject to certain constitutional and administrative law requirements, which apply to such predictive instruments. Maja Werner examines and delineates these legal frameworks.

In recent years, predictive instruments have increasingly been used to support police work. By means of standardized assessment procedures, these instruments are intended to evaluate the risk posed by an individual of committing criminal offenses in the future. The resulting assessments enable the police to allocate their resources for crime prevention in a more targeted manner. Maja Werner examines the legal requirements that must be observed when such an instrument is developed and applied for police purposes. To this end, she first outlines the fundamental structures underlying the legal framework of police decision-making and analyzes how predictive instruments can be situated within this framework. Building on this classification, she identifies the constitutional and administrative law standards governing police decision-making processes and shows how these standards apply to predictive instruments. This analysis already demonstrates that many of the existing legal requirements are not designed to address. This analysis already demonstrates that many of the existing legal requirements are not designed to address complex data processing procedures for predictive purposes. For this reason, the author then develops these legal requirements in line with their underlying constitutional and rule of law objectives. In doing so, she develops legal guidelines for the design of predictive instruments for police purposes and their application in police practice.

Table of contents:

Teil 1: Grundlagen
§ 1 Einführung
§ 2 Von Prognosetafeln zu polizeilichen Prognoseinstrumenten: Entwicklung und methodische Grundlagen
§ 3 Personenbezogene Straftatenverhütung - Zum Anwendungskontext
§ 4 Die rechtlichen Konstrukte in polizeilichen Entscheidungsprozessen
Teil 2: Konstruktion von Prognoseinstrumenten für polizeiliche Entscheidungsprozesse
§ 5 Anforderungen an Konstruktion und Methodik
§ 6 Anforderungen an die Faktoren
Teil 3: Anwendungspraxis
§ 7 Die Informationsgrundlage der Anwendung
§ 8 Entscheidungsunterstützung durch Prognoseinstrumente
§ 9 Rechtsschutz
Teil 4: Anwendungsperspektiven und Resümee
§ 10 Anwendungspotentiale und -grenzen polizeilicher Prognoseinstrumente
§ 11 Schlussbetrachtung