An Examination of the Long-Term Determinants of Constitutional Endurance: Geography, Diversity, and Historical Legacies

Elkins, Ginsburg, and Melton (2009) have empirically examined how constitutional design and contemporaneous environmental factors can affect the survival of constitutions. However, little is known about the extent to which long-term factors may affect constitutional endurance. This work extends the epidemiological model developed by those authors to study whether geography, ethnolinguistic or genetic diversity within countries, and historical legacies may have influenced the endurance of constitutions in the period 1879 to 2005. Our findings reveal that, beyond the effects of design and environmental factors, the risk of constitutional failure depends on natural endowments, diversity, and history.